Episode #207A – FDI Screwge

 

The FDI brings a lump of coal to the fastener industry, but Star Stainless president Tim Roberto Jr. and Fastener Technology International senior news editor Mike McNulty remain positive, despite mixed feelings over probable new tariffs, on the Fastener News Report (20:23). Goebel Fasteners CEO Christian Reich takes more fastener limelight at this year’s Fastenal Expo (14:21). PLUS: Marco Rodriguez of Cressa presents an update on the over land trucking situation (58:02). Brian and Eric teach a new AI old tricks. Run time: 01:10:34

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Listen to the podcast here

 

Important Links

• Star Stainless
• Goebel Fasteners
• Cresa
• Marco Rodriguez on LinkedIn
• Fastener Distributor Index Monthly Survey
• Fastener Technology International
• IFE Replay – International Fastener Show
• McNulty@FastenerTech.com
• FTR@FullyThreaded.com

 

FDI Screwge

What’s In This Episode

It’s episode 207, Part 1. Brian, we’re still doing this experiment with the compressed version of the show. Are you comfortable with this?

I am. I’m doing all right with it.

We are trying to cut out as much of the non-essential portion of the show as we can to see how it flies. 2025 is right around the corner. We’ll see what we do with the show from there. Thanks, everybody, for tuning in. If you’re in the fastener industry, distribution, manufacturing, and that kind of thing, this is the show for you.

Also, maybe your friends. Tell them.

Good point. We always appreciate that. Share the show far and wide if you can. That’s probably our best way of expanding the show at this point. We’ve got a tight one again. Star Stainless President, Tim Roberto Jr., is going to join. Fastener Technology International Editor, Mike McNulty, on the Fastener News Report. They’re going to pore over the latest Fastener Distributor Index, the FDI. That is the most dramatic one we’ve seen. The drop in the FDI portion of the index this month was startling to many people.

The hole in the bucket thing.

Could be. We’ll talk about that a little bit as soon as we come back from a break and line up the news report segment. Leading into the news, we’ve also got a quick visit from Goebel Fasteners’ CEO, Christian Reich. He’s on a roll with red carpet events. It’s a red carpet in terms of the fastener industry, at least. He, Marcel, and several people from the Goebel team were down in Orlando at the annual Fastenal Expo. We’ll know his take on that.

That would be very interesting. You have to be an elite group to get invited to the Fastenal Expo.

A lot of people wish they had gotten their invitations for that thing. If you’re a Fastenal person, you were meeting down there with close to 2,000 of your fellows. It’s quite a big annual event for them. We’ll talk about that a little bit more and warm up the FDI on the other side of the break. The title sponsors of Fully Threaded Radio are Star Stainless, Goebel Fasteners, and Brighton-Best International.

The show is also sponsored by Buckeye Fasteners, BTM Manufacturing, Eurolink Fastener Supply Service, Fastener Technology International, INxSQL Software, Fastener Fair USA, J.Lanfranco, Solution Industries, 3Q, Inc., Volt Industrial Plastics, and Würth Industry North America. Our email address is FTR@FullyThreaded.com. We appreciate the feedback we’ve gotten.

On our streamlined show.

The new abridged version. We appreciate your input, and we welcome anything else you have to say as well. You can also reach out to us on LinkedIn. We’ve gotten a lot that way as well. There is so much going on in the fastener industry, although you can feel it slowing down a little bit, cruising into the holiday period. It always gets a little slower at the end, doesn’t it?

I am so thankful for that. I love that time of the year. That’s exactly when I can do complicated things that take your undivided attention.

It gives you a chance to catch your breath. We’re going to take a quick breath before we plunge into this episode of the show. Thanks again for tuning in, everyone. We’ll talk to you in a minute.

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Teaching Old Tricks To AI

It’s Brian and Eric back with you with 207, part 1. We are still not quite used to this, but it is a new segment. Thanks to Volt Industrial Plastics for being the segment sponsor all these years. I talked to Heidi. Volt’s going strong into the end of 2025 and looking forward to the new year. We are trying to get her on the show, but she has been having a hard time getting our calendars squared away. Speaking of the Fastenal event, we’re going to hear from Christian Reich in a minute. He and Goebel were down there at the annual Fastenal Expo. You had a quick jaunt down to Florida, didn’t you?

I did indeed, down to Fort Lauderdale.

Not fastener-related, though, was it?

It had nothing to do with fasteners at all. It had to do with meeting up with a couple of friends of mine from Germany who were over for three days from Cologne. We had a lot of fun. It was good.

I’m glad you were able to get away. You didn’t pump into any Fastenal guys in the airport, did you?

Not that I recognized at all.

I’m thinking it was probably like a blue swarm down there at certain times.

Nothing flying out of Chicago.

They sent a whole lot of people there.

You can see them come wandering through and drive through the IFE, the International Fastener Expo.

Team Blue’s always on the move. We’re on the move, too. We’ve got quite a bit going on with our ongoing Luigi project. You’ll be reading more about that as the show continues into 2025. One of the things we’re doing, and you’re heading this up, is doing this AI thing. What would you call it? Training? We’re training the AI. Is that how you guys are calling it?

That’s the ordinary English way of saying it. We’re training it to recognize the different attributes of fasteners the same way the Scrubber does, but it’s surprisingly accurate. Lots of things surprise me, but the one that most does is the ability or the ease with which it can pick a size out of a string of text. It doesn’t matter where it is. It can pick a size out easily from all sorts of other stuff, including part numbers.

 

To me and the Scrubber, one of the most difficult pieces of logic is trying to isolate a size next to a part number or a MIL-SPEC number. It’s pretty easy if you’re a human. It’s not quite so easy to tell a program how to tell the difference between one set of numbers on the other or where one set ends and the other one starts.

What people don’t understand is that you can get the typical scenario figured out and programmed for it. We’re trying to do much more than that, aren’t we? We’re trying to accommodate all kinds of atypical scenes, too, as well as typos, mistakes, and abbreviations people use. There are so many permutations. The happy path is sometimes the exception, isn’t it?

It is, very much.

That’s the easy part.

The not easy part is people who, for a start, spell washer. I was dealing with this. They spell it as whaser. You can look at it and spell it wrong. It’s a washer. To a program, it’s not a washer. You’ve got to tell it there’s a washer as well, and any other variation of it that looks stupid.

It depends on what model you’re using to do all this. All the different models have different strengths and weaknesses, so it’s pretty complicated. Aside from that observation, what would you say is the most surprising thing you’ve learned from this process?

You and I started the process. The expectation was that this thing would be able to learn how to identify these fasteners in the terms that FCH uses. In other words, it’s much more than just finding out that it is a bolt and something like that. It’s turning that back into the parameters or unique IDs that we use to do the SQL search, which is another whole convolution.

We provide a lot of data, like half a million lines of fasteners. The Scrubber has an evaluation of those. It wasn’t long before it could identify these fasteners as well. I would’ve thought it might take six months or something. It managed it in about a month. It was quite fine. You could put any old thing into it. It could get a little bit muddled up with some things.

We tried to confuse it a little bit with black oxide. Black oxide was plain, which is probably true of most people in the fastener industry, too. It was staggeringly accurate, even in a short time. We’ve moved on from there. We are into teaching it much more obscure materials and weird ways. It’s quite happy to recognize a metric size based on the way Americans write it or the way Europeans write it. Overall, it’s pretty good. It’s probably ready for prime time much quicker than we thought.

There’s a change of pace for once.

Would I have ever thought some time ago that I would be saying this? It’s not even conceivable to me.

The other thing is, it’s important to remember that you’re looking at the backend. The UI of this is a whole other piece of it. That may be another story. There are a lot of moving pieces to this project, so we’ll have to keep pushing. We’ll keep you advised, everybody. It’s getting exciting on this end. We’re excited to bring you the Fastener News Report, as we are every other episode. We’ve got Mike McNulty and Tim Roberto Jr. coming up. They’ll be talking about the Fastener Distributor Index.

First, we’re going to play this short conversation I recorded with Christian Reich. He’s the CEO of Goebel Fasteners. Goebel is one of the title sponsors of the show. We always want to thank them, as well as our other title sponsors, Star Stainless, and Brighton-Best International. Here’s that conversation with Christian.

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Goebel Fasteners CEO Christian Reich On This Year’s Fastenal Expo

Christian Reich is CEO of Goebel Fasteners. He’s also a certified fastener specialist. How are you doing?

I’m doing well. How are you?

I’m doing great. It’s been a little while since I talked to you. The last time we spoke directly to any Goebel folks was when Sam was on.

That’s true. I heard you did well on his introduction.

I enjoyed meeting him. He’s an old hand. It was good to hear his backstory. I saw a photo of you and the whole team. Marcel came in. Mike was there, as well as Sam. You were all down in Orlando. You were at the Fastenal Expo. I have to ask you all about it. You looked very well situated there at the expo.

It was a great time. It was our first year being invited to participate, so we had to be there. We got our booth placement at a prime location at the front of that row that we were a part of, Booth 200. We’ve all been to the IFE, the Big Vegas show, the Fastener Ferry, where everybody comes. This being a very targeted show for Fastenal and their employees, it was an experience unlike any we’ve ever experienced.

I believe Fastenal brought in around 1,900 of its employees worldwide. We had people from Europe, South America, and Asia. Globally, they were there. The traffic was incredible. We walked away with nothing short of 250 new leads, and that was just Fastenal employees. We were very excited about it. The real work comes in the follow-up, but we’re prepared for that. We look forward to the continued growth with Fastenal.

That’s great. It’s a very well-known show that is celebrated. People love it and hate it at the same time for all kinds of reasons. You guys had a very successful debut performance down there. I was reading through the comments on your LinkedIn post, and I noticed a term that I’m unfamiliar with. I know you were focusing on your riveting tools and pneumatics. There’s a new term in there. Pneudraulic? That’s a term that I don’t know about. Is that one of your fancy marketing terms that you guys came up with? Explain that, please.

It’s a descriptor to signify pneumatic with hydraulic. With pneudraulic, the air pushes the hydraulic fluid inside the tool. That’s what actuates the tool and causes it to function. An abbreviation for pneumatic hydraulic is pneudraulic.

 

That’s a new one for me. The line that you have been promoting and that is branded for Goebel is the highest quality. It looks like you’re having some pretty good success in the market with it. Was there a lot of interest in the tools at the Fastenal show?

Yes. We had quite a few interested people who did some hands-on demos as well. We had an air supply to the booth, so we were able to cycle-function and everything.

As far as the orders and things that you’re going to get from participating in this show, is it connected at all to this new EDI initiative that Fastenal announced? You have to be participating in that, right?

Absolutely. I know that’s a big thing. Anybody who does business with Fastenal in the industry has received that notification. They launched it mid-summer 2024. They created an initiative within Fastenal that all vendors had to be EDI compliant and abide by their framework, which they issued out on an SOP format. Long story short, we jumped at that. We wanted to make sure that we checked all the boxes, so that we ranked on the highest level with them as a vendor. That is how we’ve been receiving and will continue to receive orders. It is via their EDI partnership.

That’s got to be pretty exciting for you. I know you’re looking for every avenue you can find to move those tools and everything else in your catalog. What else is hot at Goebel? You’re coming right off of this big event that you had in Europe and Germany. Marcel’s flying high, and your team is, too. What’s next for Goebel?

The next big thing for us is expanding our product offering. We’re targeting Q1 for expanding our two-piece lock bolt system. That’s a pin and collar two-piece fastener. They’re using it in the truck and trailer industries. If you ever look at an eighteen-wheeler going down the road, the heads on the trailer part are all lock bolts. That’s something we’re going to get into. We’re going to have an expansion of our G-Grip line. It’s only offered in stainless, but we’re going to start offering steel and aluminum parts as well to expand into those other markets.

I am looking forward to that. It’s always good to talk to you. We always do quick hits, but I always get a lot out of them. It’s been duly noted by a variety of people that you’re a man of few words, but you make them count.

That sounds accurate.

I’m going to ask you directly, though, on a different topic entirely. You are a member of the Fastener Mudders. We’re called the Rugged Nuts, right?

That’s right.

You heard the news. The Tough Mudder race is back with the MWFA. I take it you’re on.

I’ll be there.

What are you going to do for training on that? Are you going to hold back on us a little bit?

I got to get some cardio in.

Every time I get on LinkedIn, you’re at some other star-studded fastener event. I saw you and your lady there in a tux and gown, all dude’d up at a Fortune 500 event. That looked slick, too.

That was a good achievement for us. Goebel Fastener made the Inc. 5000 list in 2024 as one of America’s fastest-growing private companies. We ranked on that list, and we made it out there for that event.

That’s fantastic. Congratulations on that. It is great to be part of the Goebel team, and good to talk to you, Christian. I’m going to hand it off to you because it’s the news segment. You know what to do. Thanks for talking to me.

Thanks for having me. With news about screws you can use, here’s Mike McNulty.

Staying Positive Despite Mixed Feelings Over Probable New Tariffs

Thanks, Christian. This is Mike McNulty from Fastener Technology International Magazine, bringing you the Fastener News Report, which is sponsored by Volt Industrial Plastics, makers of the world’s finest plastic fasteners. Tariffs, pardons, Bitcoin, executive murder, the twelve-team college playoff bracket, major league baseball’s golden at-bats, and the reopening of the restored Notre Dame Cathedral are some of the global headlines vying for my attention these final days of 2024, but I am still focused on fasteners and ready to deliver the Fastener News Report.

In this episode, Star Stainless Screw President, Tim Roberto Jr., joins us to reveal the latest results of the Fastener Distributor Index, also known as the FDI. Also, in this broadcast, we have our top story on Nedschroef and newsmaker headlines from Würth Industry North America, AFC, Portland Bolt, LINC Systems, Nylok, Boltun, Jergens, Bontempi Vibo, Titan-x, and more. On the back page report, we’re going to talk about fastener standards. We also have Marco Rodriguez of Cresa with a report from the freight transportation industry focused on over-the-road trucking. We’ll get to all of that in the latest FDI results right after this.

The seasonally adjusted Fastener Distributor Index for November 2024 plunged more than 10 points to 46.4, versus 56.5 in October. This was the lowest FDI of 2024. The Forward Looking Indicator, also known as the FLI, was fairly stable at 52.3 versus 52.6 last month, the 3rd straight month above 50. The Fastener Distributor Index data is collected and analyzed by the FCH Sourcing Network and Baird. The FDI seeks to identify demand, pricing, and outlook trends within the American fastener distribution industry. To get some insight on these results, we’re going to talk to Star Stainless screw President, Tim Roberto Jr. Tim. Thanks for joining us on the Fastener News Report.

Thanks for having me. I always enjoy conversing with you on this.

It’s good to have you back. The last time you were on was April 2024. We’re several months past that. What do you think about the latest FDI results?

I can’t say it’s a big surprise with what we saw and what we felt in November. Even with the holiday season, I know it’s seasonally adjusted, but at the same time, you could sense a feeling of a slowing down in certain markets with bated optimism. That’s what you saw on the other side. I know we’ll get to the FLI, but in the FDI, people are seeing it and feeling that it’s slowing down a little bit towards the end of the year for what they anticipate may be a ramp-up into the beginning of the year of 2025.

We have a little bit of a mixed bag. We got the FDI down and the FLI up. The last time you were on, I was looking at the numbers. They were also mixed, but they were the opposite. It had a good above 50 FDI and a below 50 FLI. The tide has changed a little bit. We’ll jump into some of the numbers. The sales, deliveries, and customer inventories were all down while respondent inventories and month-to-month pricing rose a little bit, and then respondent inventories and year-to-year prices were flat. Is that pretty much what you guys are seeing, too?

Yeah. That tracks for the trajectory that we’ve seen on our side as well. I have to say that the FLI, where we are hanging our hat on is this idea that people are having a sense of a little bit more confidence, but not immediate confidence that it’s coming, maybe in the latter part of the 1st quarter of 2025. That’s where you’re seeing some kind of excitement in the FLI, which has been a mixed bag in itself throughout the year. This is a little bit more promising that people are feeling it.

It’s going to be better. That’s what I’m sensing, too. The number that was opposite was the PMI rose to 48.4 versus last month’s 46.5.

It seems to be trajecting in that way as well.

People have talked before about how the FDI is a little bit of an emotional thing, so maybe we’re a little bit more emotional than the purchase manager people. I,

It’s because we’re looking at the immediacy of what we see on our desk, the things that are going on, and the numbers that we’re seeing come in. The PMI is very calculated on a lot of different aspects. To see it hop up to where it did at the 48.4 is exciting to see because that means it’s not just us feeling it. It means others are seeing it, and there’s data to back that up.

Some of the other data points that you’re seeing are some positive economic indicators that are coming. Besides that, with the jobs report that came out, you’re seeing above what the anticipation was going to be in November. They felt like it was a robust rebound because October was pathetic. There’s almost an optimism that things are going to get better. Maybe we don’t see it on our desk or on our floor, but we know that it’s going to get better soon.

They’re looking a little farther because they’re factoring in lead times and stuff like that.

That’s correct.

The other data that we have is the six-month outlook and the percentages we had. This time, it retreated a little bit from last month. It was pretty stellar last month, but this month, it was 43% expecting things to be better in 6 months, 33% expecting them to be the same, and 23% expecting them to be worse. That was down from last month’s result of 50, 33, and 17. It is a little bit more temperate or a little sobering up from last month.

I’ll be the eternal optimist and say that, still, more people are saying it is going to be higher than not.

It’s 86. If you put those two, the 43 and the 33, together, that’s almost 80%.

A positive way of looking at it is that, still, people are feeling things will be better in the next six months. We look at that overall.

Baird had a note in their analysis. They said they cautioned against reading too much into one month’s result, especially in November, which has Thanksgiving as well as potential weather problems.

Correct.

It was a late Thanksgiving, so I don’t know if that had anything to do with it.

It was a short month overall. There were a lot fewer billing days in November.

Anything else on the numbers before we jump into the commentary?

No. I always take it with bated breath. To your point, you don’t want to hang your hat too much in one month. You want to see where things have been trending. The trend has been positive. ‘24 was a mixed bag. You had a whole lot of people who felt that it was either stagnant. There was a little bit of loss of market, but then you had another segment of customers that had record years. When you weigh it all out, you still see some positive growth that was taking place because of the way that it worked itself out with those numbers.

The expected recession did not come.

Isn’t that sad that we keep hearing it’s going to come? I do believe that that’s a self-fulfilling prophecy often. When they tell you it’s going to happen, what do we do? We start spending less. We start trying to cut back because we’re afraid that this is going to happen. You won’t spend as much, so what are we doing? We’re facilitating it to happen in a way because we’re hearing that it’s going to happen.

I believe that confidence is a big player or a big factor in anything. Even in politics, people put a lot of weight in politics or who’s going to be leading the politician at the “throne.” For us, a lot of it has to do with consumer confidence. We’re a consumer-driven economy. If we are not confident, we’re not going to spend. That’s ultimately what it comes down to. The fact that we didn’t see a recession happen, and they were talking about soft landings and everything else, we’re starting to see a rescinding of the interest rates. The expectation is that in December 2024, they’ll likely cut again.

We’re seeing a lot of positive things that don’t always get out there in the headlines. You’re hearing economists who will come out and say some of those with the idea that you also have some other indicators that you have to be careful of. Unemployment went up a little bit. It’s still under 5%. It’s at 4.2%. It did go up a little bit. It’s up year over year. There are things that we need to be cautious of and watch. For us, it’s looking at what you deal with day in and day out with your business.

It’s good to stay on the optimistic side. You mentioned the election and who’s ascending to the “throne.” You forget that we’re in a different kind of government and a different kind of system of checks and balances. I get a kick out of the sideboard when people declare, especially from the executive branch, “This is what we’re going to do.” It’s like, “You have to go through the process to get there.”

Listener’s Thoughts About Tariffs, Elections, And Potential Trade Wars

Let’s jump into the commentary because there were some comments here about the election. Overall, the comments were pretty positive given that the FDI went down so far. That’s tying into what you’re saying. The first one was, “The election jitters are over, and buying has resumed. Some people are stocking up in anticipation of tariffs, which is good short-term and bad long-term.” The election’s over, but we’re worried about tariffs, which we’ll get to in the supplemental question in a few minutes here.

The second is, “I was happy to have some resolve to the election season with a better idea of what to expect politically for the next year. Domestic manufacturing has been strong most of the year. We expect steady growth in the upcoming year.” The next one was, “Steady incoming order rate and tight right through Thanksgiving week. That was refreshing to see.” One more in the positive is, “Even though sales were down a bit in November, the 2 months, both October and November, were much better than the 2 previous months of August and September.” Any insight on those comments?

To your point, you hear some bated optimism, but there’s optimism there, even with the FDI numbers that we see coming out. It speaks to what the FLI and what we’re saying. People are optimistic that better things are coming. When that’s going to happen, I don’t think anybody’s going to know that for sure, but at the same time, people know things are getting better. We’re building up to that.

It was interesting to see them mention domestic manufacturing. That’s improving. I know lead times have been long on domestic products because they are very busy. Someone said that October and November were better than August and September, but that was localized. Certain businesses may see that. It is not usually a trend that we would see, but good for them to be able to see better in October and November than in August and September.

Overall, it seemed from the commentary that people are hopeful. To their point, we get anxious about elections. I’m not always certain why we get anxious about elections, because the economy is a beast in itself. The economy continues to roll the way that it rolls. For us, it was meant to build that way. That’s the free market. I know there are certain things that have been restrictions, but I would hope at this time that we would see that we get back to doing business the way we’ve done business.

You don’t want to ever drive business out of fear. You have to plan and be ready for the contingencies and things that can happen. At the same time, continue to find those opportunities. I always say that I believe those moments that are sometimes the most chaotic are also the best opportunities for business if we are planning ourselves well.

The most chaotic moments can also be the best opportunities for business if you plan well. Share on X

Take advantage of the chaos and the fear and jump in.

Be ready. When people look at trends and trajectories, they continue to play themselves out. You have to know the pulse. That goes back to knowing your market, knowing your customers, knowing your suppliers, and having those conversations. Those are all important things to do.

I’ve got two more comments, which were not as positive as the first four. The first one is, “November sales were 12% lower than October, but this drop was forecast as it is a seasonal decline that our business experienced in November and December.” The last comment was, “Our core industrial OEM business continues to be suppressed.

While there are many examples of specific OEM customers with strong backlogs and bright outlooks, there are more examples of the opposite that are making for difficult year-on-year comparables. The causal effects of the election, inflation, interest rates, etc., have been impossible to quantify, but like everyone, we’re hoping that they are, in fact, real so that we can expect some rebound as they’re resolved. Get them resolved and rebound next year.”

You’re seeing that kind of sentiment even in the marketplace. There’s a sense that there’ll be a rebound. People are cautious because it’s always hard. Forecasting has become so difficult because you’re forecasting behavior sometimes. Behavior is so hard to forecast. At the same time, it’s about planning. They’re not necessarily negative comments.

The idea of knowing that you’ve already budgeted is good for them to budget lower, knowing that that’s what November normally does. The other comment on the OEMs plays itself out. There are certain OEMs that have been a little bit slower. It depends on the breakdown, the variance that you have in your business, and the differentiation you have in the markets to be able to see that through as you get the little lows in the market.

Let’s move on to the supplemental question, which might be the barn burner. Respondents were asked for their thoughts on the impact of tariffs on US fastener markets. In the report, people get the results. Forty-three percent of the respondents lean towards the comment, “There will be mixed results, but I support tariffs. That was followed by the next category, in which 30% of the people said, “The tariffs will hurt. I do not support.”

The next group was that 13% said, “They will help, and I support them.” The final big chunk was 10% who replied, “There will be mixed results, but I do not support them.” If you combine that, you have 56% of the respondents who support them one way or another, and 40% do not support them. There were lots of interesting comments, but before we get to those, do you want to wane on the tariffs, the double-edged sword?

You say it well. It’s a double-edged sword. Why is it a double-edged sword? When you’re talking about a global increase, that means everybody has seen that increase. That’s a price that goes up. I remember Barry Porteous once saying, “Price increases across the border are not a bad thing because you make more money off of that.”

For us, it’s a price per pound. If your price per pound is going up, but everybody is facing the same price per pound that’s going up, overall, that’s not a bad thing. As consumers, we all always know that when they say that China is paying for the tariffs or that the other countries are paying for it, that’s not always true. That’s us. That’s a consumer. We’re the ones who end up paying that bill. That’s where you get those mixed results of knowing what that’s going to look like.

It’s also hard because sometimes, on the other side, when you have customers that are locked into contracts or when you’re importing, these tariffs are a little bit more difficult because it can happen in an instant. It can be that, all of a sudden, on February 15th, they’re going to raise it 10%. That means everything that has not shipped by February 15th, you have a higher price of 10% if that’s what they raise it by. That’s difficult for companies that have contracted prices in a time when it wasn’t.

It’s, hopefully, having communication with customers to get them to understand that we have to negotiate through that as tariffs are introduced, and what that’s going to look like. Otherwise, the hard part of that is that businesses will get hit with that. An importer might get hit with that 10% because it wasn’t put into the contract, it wasn’t assumed, or it wasn’t known at the time. That’s where you’re seeing the mixed results.

For the contracts and the people who want to have that sense of consistency and pricing, it’s always hard when you have it weighing over your head. There’s also the uncertainty of it. We don’t know what it’s going to be and what it’s going to look like, and yet you already have people planning for it. I know you’re having containers that are a little bit harder to get. Why? It is because a lot of American companies are pushing their Chinese manufacturers to try and get things out sooner than they need to. Why? It is so they can try and beat any terrorist that might come in somewhere down the line. You’re seeing a push to try and receive material that may not have come in until later in the year. That’s going to cause some bottleneck within the containers themselves.

It seems like it can go haywire.

There are so many complexities to the tariffs. It’s hard to sit there and say, “Are they good? Are they bad?” You could see both sides of it. You could see where it could help raise a price level that has fallen. At the same time, it’s trying to make a level playing field. That’s often what we hear. I was in Taiwan. A lot of the Taiwanese manufacturers are saying it’s impossible to compete with some of the Chinese manufacturers when it comes to the European market because they don’t have those kinds of duties like the 301 tariffs that the US has. They said that you look at those prices, and sometimes, it’s below the material prices where they’re selling it.

You see these things that make it difficult for a market to truly compete and make it fair. The hope is that we have a truly fair competitive market, not just this idea of a free market. A free market doesn’t allow people to take advantage of people who are going to go after loss leaders to try and get a market. That’s not fair. For us, there’s a sense of fairness and equity in the midst of a market to keep up the competition as well. If you drive that price low, you’re driving people out of that market. That’s a scary endeavor.

There is a sense of fairness and equity in the market, even in the midst of competition. Share on X

Sometimes, they never recover and never come back. It takes a long time to get all the countervailing duties in place and everything. It’s always been a mind-boggling thing for me. There are people who are deciding, “We’re going to drive people out of business.” That’s bad, and it still goes on.

You’re right. It’s a sad reality that we see in the marketplace.

I’m going to get into some of these comments. There are a lot of them. There are some heated ones. The first one is, “China has been dipping into the global markets for decades. I am happy to have leadership, willing to do something about it, even though the US market will struggle to wean itself off cheap goods.” The next one said, “Needs to be strategic like in 2018, but across the board is not a good plan.”

The next one says, “Historically, no blanket tariff imposed has ever worked since the 1800s. In fact, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, signed by Hoover, is famous for making the existing 1929 depression into the Great Depression. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Only people who don’t understand basic economics would think blanket tariffs are a good decision. Note that certain countervailing duties are proven effective, but those are not tariffs per se. We’ll do one more. We will have to see what effect President Trump will have on Asia, specifically China and Taiwan’s situations. We’ll take a breather there on the comments. There are a lot of emotions.

Also, some good points and valid points. The fear is that you hear there is this idea that he said he is going to hit everybody for 10%. That again comes to us. It’s us paying 10% more for everything else that’s going to be imported. It’s not going to necessarily help with US manufacturing. That itself is going to be a price increase. When you’re looking at the strategy of 2018, that was looking at the 301 tariffs that were geared more towards Mainland China to help bring about a balance and fairness in pricing, but also to fight any piracy that’s been going on or trade infringements that have happened. It was trying to get them to enforce that better in their own country.

That’s more of the strategic idea that you’re going to hit one rather than everyone. I can understand that. Across the board globally, it is going to be a trade war because then, you’ll have others that do the same to our goods. Where does that stop? That’s the fear that you have of this idea of getting away from that global economy. To somebody’s point about the 1929 depression, there came a lot of it because everybody started focusing on their own needs and forgot the idea of the global economy, which can support the world if we treat it in a fair, equitable way.

Fair trade agreements are fair trade agreements. People follow the rules. They’re helpful. When they don’t, they’re not. I’m a simpleton. If people aren’t following the agreements, then you stop working with them. If it were that easy to do, that would be the answer.

The things that you’re hearing are people getting a little afraid of veiled threats. When you come out and say, “You’re going to hit Mexico and Canada for 25%,” and then say, “That’s going to be used as a negotiating tool,” be very careful because you have markets that try to follow that to say, “What’s that going to look like?”

There is an agreement in place with these two countries.

Correct. That has worked well for all three countries. The three countries have benefited very well because, to your point, it creates that hub where you’re localizing the economies and trying to build that up so that there’s trade. We’ve seen positive trade. We have a lot of goods that go into Mexico and Canada from the US. It’s not just the US always importing. We’ve seen trade deficits go down because we’re exporting more due to manufacturing. We’re starting to try to rebuild. That’s going to take a long time to do. That doesn’t happen overnight.

There’s a lot of good there. There are some comments on North America here. Also, you have the countries to get around these, either countervailing duties or other things like building factories in other countries and shadow places in there. They’re making their chess moves ahead. Maybe some of that’s aimed at stopping that as well.

Let’s jump into the comments. “Canada and the USA need to band together and sign a bilateral agreement to exert pressure on China and Mexico as a conduit to cheap Chinese EVs and products in Canada and the USA. The USA needs energy, and Canada has it. Those Northern states don’t need a 25% in Canadian oil. Let’s make a deal. I’m quite sure we will by the summer of 2025.”

Another comment worried about, “Trade tariffs could cause margin and supply issues. Nobody wins trade wars.” The next one says, “It is a level playing field. We will all have to deal with them.” Another comment says, “Tariffs, in general, are a bad idea. It’s dumb. I support a free market.” I’m going to round this up. It says, “People don’t understand who pays those tariffs. People think we’re punishing other countries, but that money goes to the US government.” The last comment says, “It will hurt temporarily until it all balances out. Business as usual with a bump in USA manufacturing. A long time coming.” Everybody’s all over the place here.

They got some strong feelings there.

I don’t know what the answer is, but I do know there are problems and things that need to get sorted out. On balance, it’s good that they’re getting addressed.

The hope is that it’s not just a one-off or that we do this for that. We need to go back to this idea of what diplomacy looks like. It is negotiating. The sad part that we’ve lost in a lot of the shuffle of the politics we see is the true idea of compromise. We see what it would look like to negotiate things to benefit both sides. It’s not a win-lose. It is a win-win. We find ways for free trade to get better and for pricing to get fair, and to not work around those ideas of it.

We have lost the true idea of compromise and how to negotiate because of a lot of shuffle of politics. Share on X

Put up fake companies.

Correct. I agree that we need to truly weed that out if you have any of the shadow companies that are going on. We often tell our manufacturers, “If you ever hear or know of anybody that’s doing it, let us know. We’ll turn them into the US government because that shouldn’t be happening. That’s wrong, and it sends the wrong message.”

Why we had the Fastener Quality Act was so that we would lift up and support a better industry. That’s what we’re hoping to do. It’s negotiating and navigating that well. One of the things that we’ve lost power with is this idea of the lobby. Lobbying is simply saying, “What’s in the best interest of our industry?” The best interest of our industry is to be heard.

I would hope that people who have these strong feelings are letting their elected officials know that and how they feel. That’s a great area of democracy that we need to continue to exploit. Reach out to your local officials to let them know what you hope to see as an industry leader from each of these companies that are taking the time to fill out these surveys.

This is probably played into the results, too, with the FDI. We went from election concerns to tariff concerns. We’ll have a new one next month.

It’s very true that it always seems to be that there’s got to be a new concern that comes up. You want to get to a point where we get back to selling fasteners.

Sell fasteners and embrace your trade partners who are willing to work with you honestly. Hammer out a good deal and get going.

I am all for that.

Anything else you want to add to the FDI, the FLI, or tariffs before we give you a chance to tell the audience what’s going on at Star Stainless?

On the concluding side of that, I’m usually an optimist. I do have a sense of optimism. You’re hearing some of the stories. You’re seeing some of the results. You’re seeing markets that are starting to brew again. They’re in the planning stages. When that comes to fruition for the manufacturing and everything else, or the outlay of the cash for the inventory, we’ll see that as it comes. I’m optimistic that we’ll see things improve as we go through 2025. The feedback that we’ve heard from customers as well is the same. They’re looking for a rebound in ‘25 over ‘24. That plays into the FLI.

To your point that we made a couple of times, we had one month. December is probably going to play very similarly to November because it’s seasonal with many holidays and lost business days. We usually get a little bit of weather that hits towards the end of the month. We look to see what we do to position ourselves. That’s what we’ve been hearing a lot of customers say. They’re trying to position themselves well for ‘25 to have that rebound and be ready when it comes.

We’re hearing lots of good things for 2025 as well. We’re looking forward to it. There are a few days or weeks left in 2024.

It’s crazy.

Tim Roberto Jr. On FDI’s Lump Of Coal To The Fastener Industry

It snuck up on us. Let’s tell everybody what’s going on at Star Stainless.

Star is continuing to find ways to grow and find strategic partnerships. That has been important to us. It’s the supplier base that we’ve dealt with for years and the same brands that we’ve known for so long that we continue to rep, but then it’s also finding new opportunities. It’s new opportunities like building with SPIROL and carrying the full line of domestic roll pins to the MSpec, fully certified. That has been a great partnership. We’re excited to work with Michael Lentini and his team to bring that to fruition. We’re also working with BUMAX out of Sweden, which is a high-quality, great product that we’re excited to be bringing in to be the distributor for the US.

We’re looking for new opportunities to do business. For us, one of the things that is really a trademark for Star is process improvement. We continue to take a look at the internals and say, “Where can we be better for ourselves, our processes, our suppliers, and our customers?” It’s taking a hard look, hearing those conversations, and trying to pull that from customers to say, “What’s an area that you think Star can be better?” Those are conversations that are very fruitful and good at times, and those are painful at times when you have to hear some of the things where you could be better.

The part that I like about this job is finding where we could be the company that we need to be for our customer. I’m excited for what we’re seeing, what we’re offering, and the new product lines that we’ve brought in, from rivets to studs to hose clamps. We’ve seen such good traction, and we’ve seen so much good business. This idea of these new endeavors has been very exciting for Star.

Those are good stories to hear. SPIROL and BUMAX brands are very well-known. They have good products and are good people. That’s good to see you adding that and adding more products. Looking at growth, your optimism that you talked about earlier comes through with what you guys are doing.

We benefit from being part of a larger group. Being part of the LindFast Solutions Group helps us because we get to see it from so many different facets. The fastener industry is so multifaceted. Whether it is steel metrics or stainless, you have all these different aspects and components to it. Since we have so many companies within our umbrella, working together with Lindstrom, Stelfast, and Solution helps us to get a better understanding of the market and see where we could be better as a company. Those are exciting things to see.

 

That seems like it’s producing some good fruit for you guys.

It totally has. We’re very excited about it.

I’m always waiting for the next one to be added to the group. As a news person, I’m looking.

Those are always exciting moments. Growth itself is always exciting, whether it be organic or through acquisitions. Those are exciting moments.

Anything else you want to finish up with?

I wanted to tell you I do appreciate the time, and I appreciate what you do. This is good information for us to get out there to help us make the decisions we do. I often talk at the associations to say it’s great to have the data to be able to make the decisions we do day in and day out. I appreciate what you do, Mike and Eric. It’s a great team effort.

Thanks for that. Thanks for joining us on the Fastener News Report, giving your insight on all the numbers, the FDI, the FLI, and the six-month outlook, and weighing in on the tough issues like tariffs.

Correct.

Thanks for your optimism, and thanks for joining us.

Take care.

Nedschroef’s Groundbreaking Of Second Automotive Fastener Factory In Spain

That was Star Stainless Screw President, Tim Roberto Jr. The FDI number for November 2024 was 46.4 versus 56.5 in October. Visit FDISurvey.com to participate in the process and get a detailed PDF copy of Baird’s monthly analysis. For the top story, on the 10th anniversary of its acquisition of Nedschroef in the Netherlands, Shanghai Electric marked a significant milestone with the groundbreaking of Nedschroef’s second automotive fastener factory in Spain.

Situated in Tarragona, a prominent city in Northeastern Spain, this facility underscores Shanghai Electric’s commitment to enhancing Nedschroef’s capacity to deliver advanced fastening solutions all across Europe. The Tarragona factory is a cornerstone of Nedschroef’s three-year action plan, poised to optimize production capacity and drive operational efficiency. Since its acquisition, Nedschroef has solidified its foundation in the automotive components industry. By operating two facilities within Spain, Shanghai Electric and Nedschroef demonstrate a well-considered approach to leveraging regional strengths.

Nedschroef has steadily expanded its technological boundaries since acquiring the German company, CP Tech, a couple of years ago. This partnership with CP has fueled advancement, high precision, and specialized components designed for unique applications, including hypercar chassis frameworks and landing gear for low-altitude manned aircraft. By integrating CP Tech’s expertise, Shanghai Electric and Nedschroef are positioned to push the boundaries of fastener, component design, and production targeting advanced markets, including aerospace and special-purpose vehicles.

Next up is the Fastener Newsmaker Headlines. In corporate news, AFC Industries acquired CH Peters. Portland Bolt announced plans to expand its South Carolina operations. Dot Ai and Würth Industry North America partner to deploy AI tracking solutions. LINC Systems acquired CORUS Fastening. Semblex celebrated 25 years as a licensed EJOT fastener maker.

Bufab acquired VITAL. JCB expanded the aftermarket offering of Nord-Lock pivot pins. Nylok partnered with Anochrome Group in the UK, Poland, and the Czech Republic. First Aviation Services acquired Saint Technologies. Bontempi Vibo installed a new quenching heat treatment furnace. ELTEN received the Platinum Award from EcoVadis. Jergens named MPS a workholding solutions partner. LeankCo acquired TITANOX.

In Personnel News, on January 1st, 2025, Reinhold Würth will hand over his position as supervisory board chairman to his grandson, Benjamin Würth. Bettina Würth will hand over her position as advisory board chair to her nephew, Sebastian Würth. Executive Vice President of the Würth Group for Arts and Culture, C. Sylvia Weber, will transfer most of her tax to Maria Würth. BlackHawk Industrial appointed Jay Dykstra and Chad Patterson as Sales Managers for the Great Lakes Region and Marco Morgado as General Manager for the Northeast region. Lamons supported Joe Sadowski as its new CEO.

You can get details on all of these stories and more in Fastener Technology International Magazine and the Fastener News Report and Monthly Newsletter. Both are available online at FastenerTech.com. Next up, and before we turn to the back page report, here’s Marco Rodriguez of Cresa with a report from the freight transportation industry focused on over-the-road trucking.

Marco Rodriguez Presents Updates On The Over Land Trucking Situation

It’s Marco Rodriguez with Cresa, your industrial real estate partners. I’m here to present the third quarter industrial real estate update, giving sellers of threads, rivets, and clips what they need to know about the big concrete boxes they work and keep their products in. We track all major markets, but for the sake of time, this report only covers seven metro areas.

Down in Atlanta, the weather has cooled off a bit, but rents rose 7% to $9.54 per square foot. It is still the lowest in the top seven markets. As the air chills in Chicago, rents increased 4% to $9.65. Dallas rents are doing much better than the Cowboys at $9.69, which is a 6% increase over the same period in 2023. The sun is finally starting to set on the West Coast industrial rents. The Inland Empire was practically flat at $13.75. LA was down 4% to $18.30. Miami is caliente with the highest rents among the top 7 at $20.22, a whopping 3% increase. Finally, my good friends in New York and New Jersey are paying $9.67, which is also a 3% increase.

Wait. There’s less. What about sales prices? Since most FTR readers are likely leasing their building, we decided to replace sales price information with wage and unemployment data. Here are the third-quarter wages for the Laborer Occupational Code, which is a classification for most warehouse workers. Atlanta is at $18.46 with 3% unemployment. Chicago is at $20.64 with 6% unemployment.

Dallas is at $18.48 with 4% unemployment. The Inland Empire is at a whopping $21.37 with 5% unemployment. Oddly, LA is at $19.80 with 6% unemployment. That might have something to do with the additional labor supply in the LA Center. Miami rates are at $17.94 with 4% unemployment. Finally, New York has one of the highest at $21.35 with 5% unemployment.

The readers might be wondering why a real estate company tracks labor rates. That’s because companies typically spend about $5to $7 in payroll for every dollar of rent. Selecting the right warehouse location can save more on transportation wages than a marginally higher rent. If FTR readers have questions or want to learn more, I can be found on LinkedIn at Marco Rodriguez with Cresa.

 

A Few Updates About Fastener Standards

Let’s turn to the back page to talk about fastener standards. At the 2024 staging of the International Fastener Expo in Las Vegas, Nevada, one of the many highlights of the show for me was attending the Ask the Expert with Fastener Training Institute panel session. Interestingly, the questions and answers were mostly focused on fastener standards.

I was struck not only by the knowledge of the panelists but also by their enthusiasm and passion in discussing and sharing the details and inner workings of these standards. When the session ended, I asked the experts if they would be willing to author a Fastener Standards Update column for the readers of Fastener Technology International Magazine. They said yes, and the result is the first installment of the magazine’s newest column titled “Fastener Standards Update.” Turn to pages 26 and 27 of the December-January issue of Fastener Technology International Magazine. Check it out online at FastenerTech.com.

The standards experts are Carmen Vertullo of Carver Engineering and Manufacturing, Carver Labs, Darlene Collis of LindFast Solutions Group, and Toby Anderson of Bay Bolt. Thanks to these experts, FTI Magazine can share regular updates on ASME, ASTM, IFI, ISO, RCSC, and SAE fastener standards all in one easy-to-find location.

If you miss the expert sessions in Las Vegas, it’s available online at FastenerShows.com/ife-replay. Look for the session titled Ask the Expert with Fastener Training Institute to check it out. This is Mike McNulty of Fastener Technology International Magazine, bringing you the Fastener News Report and wishing everyone a nice Christmas season and a great 2025. Please send your news, pictures, comments, corrections, or complaints to me at McNulty@FastenerTech.com.

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Episode Wrap-Up And Closing Words

Tim and Mike were on fire talking about these tariffs.

I have a completely different view of tariffs from an incoming president, I have to say. Most of the Nobel economists say that tariffs only hurt the people within the country who impose the tariffs, because all they do is increase the price of something. The only people who pay that price are the people who are buying products affected by the tariffs. Maybe the country that has it imposed on them has a problem, too, but the main problem is with the people in the country that imposes them.

Tariffs may bring problems to the country it is imposed on, but the main problem is in the country that imposes it. Share on X

That idea was reflected in some of the comments that our survey participants put out there, and Mike and Tim tossed that around a little bit. There are all kinds of feelings on this thing. You pointed out to me a piece that you saw on LinkedIn. I’ve got it here. It’s from Tim O’Keeffe, CEO of Huyett. He’s pretty well-known for putting his ideas about things out there.

He said a couple of things, but the takeaway from this post that he put on LinkedIn is, “I predict the 25% tariff will stimulate the Chinese to devalue their currency. Suppliers will cut pricing, mitigating most of the tariff. The next 15%, if enacted, will have the most impact.” I’m not sure what to make of that necessarily, but it’s an idea. There are a lot of moving pieces to this.

Tim goes on to say that he thinks that now that Trump has taken a sideways swipe at Mr. Trudeau in Canada, he may even move on and not even bother.

Thanks to Mike McNulty and Tim Roberto for the Fastener News Report and their discussion on the Fastener Distributor Index. Thanks also to Christian Reich of Goebel Fasteners. Congratulations on your continued growth. We’re so happy to be a part of that team. The title sponsors of the show are Brighton-Best International, “Tested and tried true, Brighton-Best,” Goebel Fasteners, “Quality the first time, Go Goebel,” and Star Stainless, “Right off the shelf, it’s Star.”

The show is also sponsored by Buckeye Fasteners, BTM Manufacturing, Eurolink Fastener Supply Service, Fastener Technology International, INxSQL Software, J.Lanfranco, Solution Industries, 3Q, Inc., Volt Industrial Plastics, and Würth Industry North America. The email address FTR@FullyThreaded.com, or catch us on LinkedIn. We’re grabbing as much feedback as we can, so it’s a perfect time if you have something to tell us about your ideas for the platform, the show, and so forth. We’ve got another episode right around the corner. It’s almost in the can. That’ll be episode 207 Part 2.

207B.

If you please. This one features the new President of the Metropolitan Fastener Distributor Association, a group that we haven’t talked to before on the show, at least not in the context of the MFDA. Robert Rundle will be with us. We will also have Carmen Vertullo’s Fastener Training Minute. That is another tight one and bite-sized, perfect for your holiday enjoyment. It’s stocking stuffer-sized. In keeping with that theme, as promised a couple of episodes ago, we’re going to redux JR Prahl’s The Gift. If you haven’t heard that one ever or in a while, it’s time to dig that one out and get you in the mood to maybe take off a little time and drink a little too much eggnog, perhaps.

You’re right.

Until then, we still have some work to do, so let’s call this one a wrap. Thanks, everyone, for tuning in. Get out there and sell some screws. We’ll talk to you again very soon.

Until next time.